Bitcoin Price Forecast
Written by: Rania Gule, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com
Bitcoin (BTC) saw a slight recovery yesterday, rising above the $93,000 level after a sharp 6% drop since Monday. It opened today, Thursday, at $95,785, amid a clear decline in institutional demand. Recent data on outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) showed a decrease of $123 million, reflecting weak interest from institutional investors. In my view, this decline, along with significant profits made by long-term holders, has pushed the market into a phase of re-accumulation, indicating that volatility may continue before a return to upward momentum.
After weeks of rapid growth, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) entered a phase of high volatility, dropping below $94,000 after exiting the upward channel it had been trading in. Moving averages indicate a short-term bullish trend, but a price break below the signal line suggests selling pressure, which may signal further declines from current levels. These indicators suggest that Bitcoin could face an upcoming corrective wave, leading to more short-term volatility.
In my opinion, the market is currently experiencing a level of enthusiasm that could push prices higher in the very near future, but this may only be a sign of an impending correction. As for the correction, I believe Bitcoin cannot continue growing above the $100,000 mark without experiencing some form of pullback. This correction may be necessary to consolidate Bitcoin’s gains and stabilize the market, allowing the coin to continue its upward trend in the medium and long term.
From my perspective, concerns about an “overheated market” are one of the important factors raising doubts about the unsustainable growth of Bitcoin. The current Bitcoin price far exceeds the historical support level at $66,000, which has acted as a strong barrier against price collapses since 2017. This level could become an important starting point in the event of a deep correction.
Therefore, I see a high likelihood of a correction shortly. I believe that a price decline in the coming weeks might be necessary to “cool down” the market, which would contribute to a price correction in line with historical patterns. If this correction doesn’t happen, we may witness short- to medium-term disruptions due to the sharp price increase, which could lead to uncomfortable volatility for investors.
The market might experience a price increase, but it may not necessarily be sustainable. The market has started recalculating new price levels following Trump’s election victory, with future price expectations rising from the previous range of $70,000 to $80,000 to now $100,000. I believe that upcoming economic data could lead to increased Bitcoin volatility, opening the door for both upward and downward price movements.
Additionally, the macroeconomic environment presents another challenge to Bitcoin’s rapid growth. Despite the current buzz surrounding Bitcoin, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy plays a pivotal role in determining the future direction of the coin. While some expect the Fed to lower interest rates again, this could lead to additional volatility in Bitcoin markets. On the other hand, Bitcoin’s declining dominance in the market, with its share dropping from 60.1% to 57.9% in recent days, signals a redistribution of funds toward alternative cryptocurrencies, putting more pressure on Bitcoin.
In my opinion, despite the current challenges and pressures, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive. Increasing institutional interest, especially with the presence of cryptocurrency ETFs, could strengthen Bitcoin’s position in global markets. Furthermore, the limited supply of Bitcoin in the market could lead to price increases, as seen in previous cycles. If the traditional structure of bull markets holds, Bitcoin could reach new historical levels in September and October 2025.Â
I expect further market volatility in the coming period, as future liquidations and high funding levels could lead to a temporary correction. However, a Bitcoin correction in this context is necessary for sustainable growth. Once Bitcoin surpasses the $100,000 mark, we could enter a new phase of continuous growth. Long-term projections for Bitcoin remain positive, especially with growing institutional interest, making Bitcoin one of the standout investment opportunities at the end of 2024.
