Can gold rise to new highs above $5,600 in 2026?
sharp swings at the start of the year have raised questions about whether the precious metal can regain momentum, but UBS analysts believe the forces behind its earlier rally remain intact.
After touching a record high of $5,594 per ounce on 29 January, gold dropped 9 percent the following day and slid toward intraday lows of $4,400, a move that “unsettled investors,” according to UBS strategist Vincent Heaney.
Prices have since stabilised below $5,000, caught between dip-buying and shifts in Federal Reserve rate expectations.
UBS believes the recent turbulence is better viewed as a “reset rather than regime change,” noting that spot prices remain about 15 percent higher in 2026.
The bank sees the $4,500–$4,800 range as one where “fundamentals reassert their influence,” supported by expectations for two more U.S. rate cuts this year as well as “continued firm demand from central banks and ETFs.”
Evidence of that demand remains strong. UBS highlighted that central banks bought 863 metric tons of gold in 2025 and now forecast purchases reaching 950 tons in 2026. ETF inflows are also projected to rise to 825 tons.
The bank argues that volatility may echo past mid-cycle pullbacks, such as in 1974 and 2020, when prices dipped but soon resumed their uptrend.
UBS remains confident that gold can climb in 2026, projecting prices as high as $6,200 per ounce by mid-year before a consolidation to $5,900 by December.
It recommends a “mid-single-digit-percentage allocation” for investors seeking a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks.
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