How Unlocking Women’s Work Could Reshape MENA Economies

Women, productivity, and the long-run income gains in the Middle East and North Africa

A growing body of research shows that fully integrating underutilized groups—especially women—into formal, higher-productivity jobs could dramatically raise average incomes in many MENA countries. Studies using long-term growth models estimate that closing gender employment gaps across the region could lift GDP per capita by around 30–35% by mid-century, with some scenarios pointing toward even larger gains under optimistic assumptions.

One recent World Bank analysis simulates the effects of equalizing female and male labor-force participation and finds that eliminating the current gender imbalance in employment could increase income per capita by almost 47–50% in the long run.

Other model-based exercises, also from the World Bank, suggest that closing gender employment gaps in MENA could raise GDP per capita by roughly 50%, making the region one of the areas with the highest potential gains from reducing gender inequality.

This reflects the simple fact that women in many MENA countries already have relatively high schooling levels, so bringing them into productive jobs significantly boosts the effective amount of skilled labor in the economy.

These estimates are not forecasts of short-term booms but projections of what could happen if structural barriers—such as legal constraints, care-burden imbalances, and limited access to finance and markets—are gradually removed.

In practice, realized gains would depend on the pace of reforms, the ability of firms to absorb new workers, and governments’ investments in education, childcare, and social protection.

Nevertheless, the consistency of findings across different models reinforces one message: in a region where growth has lagged for decades, advancing women’s economic inclusion is less a side issue than a core driver of shared prosperity.