Gaza: Comparing Reconstruction Plans and Political Scenarios
The Palestine Economic Policy Research Institute (MAS) convened a roundtable discussion titled “The Gaza Strip after the War: Visions and Comparative Analysis of Recovery, Reconstruction Plans and Political Scenarios.” To facilitate the discussion, MAS prepared a background paper that reviewed reconstruction plans for Gaza both before and after the war. The paper particularly focused on the pace of planning initiatives since the October 2023 war and on the plans developed after the January 2025 ceasefire.
The paper concluded that several of these plans embody distinct visions for reorganizing life in the Gaza Strip, raising fundamental questions: Who controls the territory? Who governs the population? What can be rebuilt, how, and for whom? What will happen to the displaced population, and who among them will be entitled to return? Reconstruction, therefore, is not solely a matter of rebuilding with concrete and steel; it must also encompass the restoration and development of societal capacities and human capital.
In this sense, reconstruction should be understood as a process of political, economic, and spatial production, involving the reconstitution of the various facets of society. It is not merely a collection of projects or relief-oriented programs implemented under the rubric of recovery.
Accordingly, the background paper focused on comparing these plans and highlighting the shortcomings associated with each, while assessing each plan against a set of nine criteria, helping to identify the official position regarding each plan in terms of acceptance, rejection, or modification, an approach that sparked extensive discussion. The criteria were namely: (1) the entity that prepared the plan and the extent of its legitimacy; (2) the proposed implementing actor(s); (3) the extent and nature of Palestinian participation and involvement; (4) the proposed security and governance model; (5) the economic and financing model; (6) the position on the question of refugees and displaced persons, including the right of return; (7) the political horizon, including sovereignty and liberation; (8) the degree of coordination with Palestinian institutions; and (9) the conditions and dependencies associated with implementation.
Based on these criteria, five distinct categories of plans were identified: the technical developmental approach; the political-security approach; an investment-driven privatization approach; an international transitional governance approach; and a participatory community-based approach.
From another perspective, the paper examined the extent to which the proposed plans align with international and UN frameworks, with the aim of determining which of these plans are consistent with international legal instruments governing displacement, compensation, and the right of return. The analysis found that most of the plans give limited attention to legal dimensions and international conventions. The background paper also discussed possible and anticipated political scenarios. The discussion ultimately evolved into a broad debate on what best serves Palestinian interests, culminating in a set of policy recommendations and practical guidance for decision-makers and experts engaged in the reconstruction efforts. In conclusion, the background paper generated extensive discussion around three key themes: assessing the plans against the nine evaluation criteria, examining their consistency with international legal conventions, and analyzing the potential political scenarios for reconstruction in light of the overarching orientations and objectives underpinning each plan.
Policy Brief - Postwar Gaza: Perspectives and A Comparative Analysis of Recovery and Reconstruction Plans and Political Scenarios