Commodity Prices Set to Surge in 2026
Energy prices are projected to surge by 24% this year to their highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as the war in the Middle East sends a severe shock through global commodity markets, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook. Overall commodity prices are forecast to rise 16% in 2026, driven by soaring energy and fertilizer prices and record-high prices for several key metals.
The shock is expected to have serious implications for global growth, inflation, and development.
Attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — which handles about 35% of global seaborne crude oil trade — have triggered the largest oil supply shock on record, reducing global oil supply by an estimated 10 million barrels per day. Brent crude prices remained more than 50% higher in mid-April than at the beginning of the year and are forecast to average $86 per barrel in 2026, compared with $69 in 2025.
“The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation,” said Indermit Gill, Chief Economist of the World Bank Group.
Fertilizer prices are projected to rise by 31% in 2026, including a 60% increase in urea prices, threatening agricultural productivity and food affordability. According to the World Food Programme, prolonged conflict could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity this year.
Meanwhile, prices for key industrial metals such as aluminum, copper, and tin are expected to reach record highs due to rising demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy, and data centers. Precious metals prices are forecast to increase 42% amid growing geopolitical uncertainty.
The World Bank also warned that rising commodity prices will intensify inflationary pressures and weaken economic growth worldwide. Inflation in developing economies is now projected to average 5.1% in 2026, while growth is expected to slow to 3.6%.
In a more severe scenario, Brent crude oil prices could average as high as $115 per barrel if supply disruptions worsen or last longer than expected.
Download the full report: https://bit.ly/CMO-April-2026
Source: World Bank Group