A report published: The cost of Israeli – Palestinian Conflict
Al Mustakbal Foundation and the RAND Corporation have released of a new RAND report: THE COSTS OF THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT Monday June 8, 2015 in Ramallah.
The study focused on: “The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict”, this study estimates the net costs and benefits over the next ten years of five alternative trajectories—a two-state solution, coordinated unilateral withdrawal, uncoordinated unilateral withdrawal, nonviolent resistance, and violent uprising—compared with the costs and benefits of a continuing impasse that evolves in accordance with present trends.
The analysis focuses on economic costs related to the conflict. In addition, non-economic factors critical to understanding and resolving the impasse are briefly examined. These intangible factors include power imbalance, sovereignty aspirations, and perceived security risk.
The costs of each scenario to the international community have also been calculated. The study’s is designed to identify how RAND’s objective, fact-based approach might promote fruitful policy discussion. The overarching goal is to give all parties comprehensive, reliable information about available choices and their expected costs and consequences.
Analytic Focus: The analysis of the report focuses on direct and opportunity costs related to the conflict, including the economic costs of security. In addition, the study looks at some intangible factors that are critical to resolving the conflict, such as difference in power between the parties, perceived security risk, and differences in societal narratives. The research highlights some longer-term trends that are likely to influence the future, including an open media environment, colonial and settlement expansion, international public opinion, and demographic trends.
The methodology of the study uses a counterfactual approach, which makes it possible to compare outcomes for Israelis and Palestinians under alternative assumptions about political conditions. For example, one might compare some outcome related to the current economic performance to what that outcome might have been if a two-state solution were achieved. The repot uses this approach to assess the economic and social implications for Palestinians and Israelis of various policy decisions. Specifically, we estimate how economic and security outcomes will evolve over ten years through 2024 if the political and economic characteristics of the present trends continue along their current trajectories and compare those out comes to the five scenarios in terms of effects on total gross domestic product (GDP), percentage change in GDP, and change in GDP per capita.